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| ▲ This file photo provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new Chollima-1 rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, the Malligyong-1, from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap) |
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| ▲ This photo, provided by the Korea Institute for National Unification on Oct. 6, 2023, shows the state-run think tank holding a press conference in Paju, just north of Seoul, over major pending issues on the Korean Peninsula. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap) |
(LEAD) N Korea-satellite launch
(LEAD) N. Korea may launch military spy satellite between Oct. 10 and 26: S. Korean think tank
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; CHANGES dateline, photos; ADDS byline)
By Kim Soo-yeon
PAJU, South Korea, Oct. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may launch its military spy satellite between Tuesday and Oct. 26 following its previous two failed launches, as it will likely take into account key political and diplomatic events, a South Korean state-run think tank said Friday.
The potential launch window, projected by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) in Seoul, appears to reflect North Korea's key anniversary and China's hosting of an international forum on its Belt and Road initiative later this month.
North Korea will celebrate Oct. 10 as the 78th founding anniversary of its ruling Workers' Party. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on the margins of the Belt and Road summit.
North Korea launched a military spy satellite, named the Malligyong-1, mounted on the Chollima-1 rocket in May and August, but both ended in failure. North Korea has announced it will make a third attempt in October.
"Pyongyang is likely to try to launch its spy satellite ahead of South Korea's attempt. The North appears to prioritize delivering a political message with the satellite launch, rather than perfecting technical aspects," Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the institute, said at a press conference in Paju, near the border with North Korea.
South Korea plans to launch its first military surveillance satellite in November under a project to deploy a total of five such satellites by the mid-2020s.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited Russia's Far East last month for talks with Putin, raising concerns about a possible arms deal between the two nations. Experts said North Korea may have agreed to supply ammunition for Russia's war in Ukraine in exchange for Moscow's transfer of weapons technology.
A military spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons that the North has vowed to develop, which also include solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and a nuclear-powered submarine.
Chung Sung-yoon, a director at the KINU, said North Korea may make a "self-proclaimed" announcement soon that it has secured the status of a nuclear state in a bid to bring the North's nuclear issue to the fore ahead of the U.S. presidential election next year.
"In the runup to the announcement, North Korea will likely display its advanced nuclear capabilities (with major provocations) at least once," he said.
During a key parliamentary meeting last week, North Korea amended the constitution to enshrine the policy of bolstering its nuclear force. A year ago, it enacted a new nuclear law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear arms, calling its status as a nuclear state "irreversible."
Chung said North Korea may try to sway the U.S. election in a way that helps the election of former U.S. President Donald Trump, as Pyongyang could think his victory will work to its advantage, despite the no deal summit between the North's leader and Trump in Hanoi in 2019.
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