(News Focus) US midterms-Korea policy

By Chang Dong-woo

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- Democratic control of the U.S. Congress could make it harder for South Korea to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and limit President Donald Trump's ability to reach a deal with North Korea, even as he may seek another summit with leader Kim Jong-un, according to experts Wednesday.

The assessments came after the Democratic Party scored a landslide victory in Tuesday's midterm elections, with the party poised to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, dealing a major political blow to Trump.

Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Democrats could be more reluctant than Republicans to support South Korea's efforts to acquire nuclear-powered submarines because of concerns about the spread of nuclear technology.

"Democrats may hold on to non-proliferation norms more strongly than Republicans, which may create obstacles to Lee's path to acquire nuclear powered subs," Yeo said, referring to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, also warned that the submarine plans could face delays or opposition in Congress.

"Ambitious commitments, such as cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines, could face delays or obstruction, even as longstanding bipartisan support for core alliance commitments, including extended deterrence, remains comparatively resilient," Cronin said.

Robert Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, shared a similar view.

"Unclear to what extent, if at all, Democrats will be supportive of Trump promises of nuclear-powered subs and enrichment-reprocessing rights for Korea. NPT concerns still weigh heavily," Rapson said, referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The election results could also affect South Korea's push to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its troops from the United States.

Yeo said Congress was already reluctant to set a fixed date for the OPCON transfer and that Democratic control could lead to further resistance to Seoul's proposed 2030-or-earlier timeline.

"Trump and Hegseth seem to be more open to OPCON transfer by 2030 than other U.S. policymakers, but a Democrat-controlled Congress may raise more questions and resist this move," he said, referring to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Rapson said it remained unclear where Democrats stood on an early OPCON transfer.

On other bilateral issues, Yeo said the Republican election losses could affect expectations about how quickly Seoul moves ahead with its planned US$200 billion investment in the U.S., part of a bilateral trade deal signed last year.

Rapson said trade and investment agreements reached under pressure from Trump's tariffs could get a second look under Democratic lawmakers. "What that might look like exactly is to be determined."

On North Korea, Cronin said Trump could become more eager to pursue a major foreign policy achievement following the Republican losses, but stressed that the new political climate will impose constraints on his ability to reach a deal, such as offering sanctions relief to North Korea.

Trump, according to Rapson, could seek renewed talks with North Korea to strengthen his political legacy, but questioned whether Pyongyang would see much benefit in negotiating with a politically-weakened president.

"Congress will certainly preclude any efforts by Trump to cut a deal waiving sanctions against the North a la the recent Russia deal," Rapson said.

Scott Snyder, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of KEI, noted that a Democratic-controlled Congress could complicate negotiations with Pyongyang but "is unlikely to block a determined executive branch."

He also said North Korea might see greater advantages in dealing with Trump under the latest circumstances.

"For North Korean leaders, the prospect of dealing with a weakened American president may be moderately more enticing than it seemed before the midterms. The question will be whether Pyongyang views it as a unique window of opportunity or as unnecessary to its current strategic needs,' Snyder said.

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