NK missile-analysis

▲ North Korea test-fires one of two kinds of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles in the East Sea on Oct. 14, 2026, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. The launch was intended to "examine the current mobilized posture of the underwater combat systems" and help the Navy better perform its strategic missions," according to the KCNA. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

By Chang Dong-woo

WASHINGTON, Oct. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be testing U.S. President Donald Trump's tolerance for military provocations, a U.S. think tank analysis showed Tuesday, as Pyongyang has increased its missile launch activities during Trump's second term.

The analysis by Victor Cha and Andy Lim of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) raised the possibility that Kim is seeking to gauge Washington's response to his expanding weapons activities despite Trump's repeated overtures for renewed dialogue.

The two suggested Kim "may be testing Trump himself and the limits of Trump's red lines," which they characterized as no intercontinental ballistic missile tests, no nuclear tests and no lethal attacks.

The analysis noted that North Korea has carried out 34 missile launch events during the first 21 months of Trump's second term, double the 17 recorded during the comparable period of his first term.

Pyongyang has also fired at least 93 missiles since Trump returned to office in January 2025, already exceeding the total number launched throughout his entire first four-year presidency, according to the analysis.

The researchers also highlighted North Korea's expanding weapons programs, including the flight-testing of new hypersonic missiles, a ground test of a high-thrust solid-fuel missile engine and launches of cruise and anti-ship missiles from its new Choe Hyon destroyer.

They also raised other possible explanations for Kim's activities, including efforts to test weapons under a new five-year military development plan or position himself ahead of a possible summit with Trump in China next month.

"Whatever the reason, Trump's return to the White House and his unrequited summitry have not necessarily brought the restraint and respect trumpeted by the president," the analysis said.

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in engaging with Kim again, citing their "good" personal relationship, amid speculation about a possible meeting during the president's planned visit to China next month.

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